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The European Champions (still sounds weird, doesn't it?) start the defence of their title against a club which is delighted to simply be back in the Champions League. It's been a long road back to the top for Juventus, and the Conte/Carrera rotation policy in Serie A so far shows that Juve are serious about mounting a proper European challenge. There were rumours this week that Juve would play a weakened side at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday, but I don't believe that for a second. They took a risk with team selection on Sunday against Genoa, and that was all geared towards being at their best in London. The Blues' home record in this competition has to be respected, but I think that Didier Drogba will be a big loss to them in European matches. His power is something that teams from, say,...

[b]The Blues have scored in each of their last 13 Champions League games (25 goals)[/b] And having found the net at Old Trafford, the San Paolo, the Estadio da Luz and twice with ten men at the Camp Nou in that sequence, there is no reason to suspect they will be cowed by the task awaiting them at the Allianz Arena. In fact, the only European away match they failed to net in over the last three seasons was at Marseille when already qualified last term. Bayern Munich should have no trouble playing their part, firing one blank in 14 at home and scoring two or more in the other 13. [b]English sides have won just one of their last eight European finals in all competitions (Manchester United beating Chelsea in the 2007/08 Champions League)[/b] Though England have the edge in European club...

[u]Chelsea's run to the final was more impressive[/u] In the autumn, as Bayern Munich strolled through the toughest group with the sort of efficiency cliché demands, and Andre Villas-Boas struggled to steer Chelsea through a simpler one from the crouch position, Bayern looked far more likely winners. Yet since the knockout stage started, the Blues have been the star turns; five European outings under Roberto Di Matteo have produced five wins, a draw and a 10-4 goal supremacy. Bayern by contrast lost to FC Basel, lucked out in drawing Marseille (perhaps in worse form than any other side in Champions League quarter-final history) and saw off their Spanish superheavyweight opponents only thanks to Sergio Ramos sending a penalty into orbit. [u]They beat the mighty Barcelona[/u] By...

[b]Madrid have won 11 and lost just one of their last 13 Champions League games at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu[/b] And Jose Mourinho's side have won the most games in this season's Champions League, recording nine victories in 11 fixtures. Of those nine successes, five were at the Bernabeu, and on each occasion Real won by an impressive margin of at least three goals. Meanwhile, if Bayern were hoping to hang on for a draw, they should perhaps think otherwise, seeing as only one of their last 30 games in this competition has ended all square. [b]Bayern have lost their last four Champions league fixtures at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, including the 2010 final against Jose Mourinho's Inter Milan (0-2)[/b] Real are unbeaten in 11 encounters in all competitions at home, nine of which they ...

[i]On each of the three occasions that Barca lost the first leg of a Champions League semi-final, the Catalans have exited the competition[/i] Chelsea's 1-0 lead might look a slender advantage, but a clean sheet gives Roberto Di Matteo's side every chance of progressing, not least because the Blues will fancy themselves to score at the Nou Camp. For all their possession, Barcelona have managed just two shutouts in their last eight home matches in all competitions, and have conceded in all but one of their previous five fixtures in this competition. What's more goalkeeper Victor Valdes (52.9%) has the worst saves-to-shots ratio in this season's Champions League, with the exception of Borussia Dortmund's Roman Weidenfeller (40%). [i]Chelsea are the only side who have faced Barca more ...

[u]Bayern Munich v Real Madrid, 19:45, Sky Sports 2[/u] When the Champions League reaches the semi-final stage, does a side's progress to this point of the competition tell us anything about what's likely to happen this week? Most of Real and Bayern's games have come against weaker sides so surely, for example, Real's outstanding form in the competition to date is no guide to how they'll fare against the Bavarian giants. Then again, 10 games is a decent body of evidence so it's possible to draw some conclusions about the team's strengths and weaknesses. [u]Match Odds[/u] Having watched both teams several times this season, my feeling is Real Madrid have a slightly better chance of winning the game. They've won nine of 10 Champions League games and 27 of 33 league fixtures (84%...

[b][u]Barcelona v AC Milan, 7.45pm, live on Sky Sports 2[/u][/b] [u]Barcelona[/u] Xavi is the star of the team news this week. He missed a public training session on Monday and Pep Guardiola says his participation will be decided as late as possible. There has also been some discussion about whether the coach will play three or four defenders, but, as Michael Cox has explained, that is a largely academic debate. Lionel Messi's astonishing goal records have been well documented recently - age 24, he's just become his club's all-time top-scorer - and he's been particularly sharp in the Champions League of late, scoring 30 times in his last 26 matches. Opta offers one small cause for pause, however: Messi converted a penalty against Milan in the group stage, but has not scored ...

[b][u]AC Milan v Barcelona, 19:45 (Live on ITV)[/u][/b] [u]AC Milan[/u] Massimiliano Allegri's team are top of Serie A, but have been as good on the road (W10/15) as they have at the San Siro (W9/14). In 2012 Inter, Juventus (twice) and Napoli have all avoided defeat away to Milan in domestic competitions. With Robinho and Pato sidelined by injury, the spotlight is on Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who has scored on five of his six Champions League appearances this season. Another ex-Barcelona player, Mark van Bommel, is banned for this match. The Dutchman scored an own goal when these two met in Italy in the group stage and might not be missed as much as Thiago Silva. [u]Barcelona[/u] The Spanish champions won here in the group stages (3-2). Some terrific recent form helps make ...

Having overcome Napoli against all odds in the second leg of their last 16 clash Chelsea will travel to Lisbon to face Benfica this week believing they can make it to the last four for the first time since 2009. The market certainly think so. Chelsea go into the tie as 1.58 favourites to qualify, with Benfica 2.68. But to get anything out of this week's game, Chelsea will need to improve on their away record of W0-D2-L3 in their last five Champions League away matches. Those problems on the road, plus Benfica's outstanding record of just one defeat in their last eight home games against English opposition, suggest Chelsea's price of 3.3 to win on Tuesday night is justified. Benfica at 2.44 and the draw at 3.35 look the smart picks in the match market, but goals are a stronger bet ...